Peter Chen

Preface#

Background#

This is the 整理 of the sharing manuscript for the first offline book club of this year, held on March 19th, five months ago. However, the 整理 of the content has been delayed until now, haha. Initially, I didn't plan to 整理 it into a manuscript, but I found that the content of this book has been something I often think about recently, proving that there is still value in 整理 ing it, so I 整理 ed it out to share with everyone.

The overall arrangement of the book's content is not particularly engaging, and there are no illustrations throughout the text, making it somewhat laborious to read. The examples are all from abroad, which makes it a bit difficult to relate. However, I once listened to Teacher Fan talk about it on Fan Deng Reading and felt it was somewhat interesting, so I chose this book as the theme for the offline book club.

On one hand, I have gained some awareness of the life topics of understanding others and understanding oneself in the past two years and found it interesting, wanting to see others' perspectives; on the other hand, since it is my first time organizing an offline book club, from a research perspective, it is best to choose books that resonate with everyone's lives, such as those related to psychology and sociology, like intimate relationships, nonviolent communication, the art of love, and being involved, which would also facilitate more intellectual collisions.

Book Introduction#

Let me first introduce this book.

I wonder what everyone’s first impression of this book title is. My impression is that it is very similar to the metaphor of being ordinary yet confident; it’s like, how can someone so ordinary be so confident? This name is obviously a derogatory term, and it feels like the author is a bit too dismissive👀. Is it a book about how to confront others? Haha.

But in reality, just like the original title of the book: Self-Insight: roadblocks and detours on the path to knowing thyself

Obstacles and detours on the road to understanding oneself.

So, to put it bluntly, the content of this book may seem like a weapon for attacking others, but in fact, it is a mirror for examining and analyzing oneself.

After introducing the book's title, let's take a look at the author.

The author is David Dunning, who was listed as one of the top 2% most cited psychologists by Stanford University in 2021. He, along with Kruger, proposed the very famous concept of the Dunning-Kruger Effect, which will also be one of the key points of our discussion today.

Main Content#

Before we begin, everyone can think about the following two questions:

• For friends who can drive: Where do you think your driving skills rank among all drivers?
• For friends who cannot drive: Where do you think your athletic ability ranks among all your peers?

The reason for asking this question is to resonate with the theme of today’s book, which will be revealed later👀.

Why are the most ignorant people the most confident?#

Knowing others is intelligence; knowing oneself is true wisdom. — Laozi, Tao Te Ching

Laozi believes that those who can read others' words and expressions, and understand their talents, personalities, and virtues or vices, can be considered wise; however, only those who can deeply introspect and understand themselves are truly virtuous.

Illusory Superiority#

Let’s look at a few examples from life: when buying stocks, one might think their stock-picking ability is better than others; when playing the lottery, one might believe they have a better chance of winning than what the store offers. These are common phenomena of overestimation of oneself, which do not actually reflect our true level.

So why does this misperception of one’s true abilities occur? Here, the author mentions a concept called illusory superiority.

We often see elderly people exhibiting this symptom. We buy them hearing aids and say, “You can’t hear; you need to wear a hearing aid,” but they often resist wearing them. The elderly might say, “I can hear,” and you can only helplessly respond, “You see, you just didn’t hear that last sentence.” The elderly would reply, “That’s because you spoke too fast; if you spoke slower, I would be able to hear it.”

This is essentially their unwillingness to admit that their hearing is failing. This lack of self-awareness is a manifestation of illusory superiority, reflected in our complete unawareness of self-perception.

The author and his students discovered and named this phenomenon, which is the Dunning-Kruger Effect, also known as The Dunning-Kruger Effect.

Dunning-Kruger Effect#

Introduction#

The lower an individual's skill or knowledge level in a certain area, the more difficult it is for them to accurately assess their own abilities in that area.

• This leads them to potentially overestimate their abilities, while in reality, they may not be proficient in that area.
• Conversely, those with actual skills or knowledge tend to be more humble and can more accurately assess their own abilities.

This topic has also been discussed in the reading group before: If you feel something is very simple, then either you know nothing about it, or you are an industry expert.

Reasons#

Why does the Dunning-Kruger Effect occur? The author points out that the reason is a flaw in our metacognition.

So what is cognition, and what is metacognition?

• Cognition is what we understand, for example, the skills and knowledge required in the investment field are called cognition.
• What about metacognition? Our understanding of the level of our cognition is called metacognition. For instance, my evaluation of my own investment level is a form of metacognition.

These are two different concepts.

Why does metacognition have flaws? Because cognition is the foundation of metacognition, and cognition requires continuous learning and improvement. When you cannot do something, it is also difficult to evaluate your own performance.

The author provides several examples:

• A doctor must accurately evaluate whether they have made the best diagnosis for a patient, which requires them to be familiar with the symptoms of the disease.
• A language teacher must provide effective advice to students, which requires them to be proficient in language norms.
• A tax accountant must reasonably assess the advice they give clients, which requires them to be knowledgeable about tax laws.

If the professional knowledge of the above individuals is lacking or insufficient, they will be unable to make correct evaluations of their own actions.

Thinking about it carefully, this is a terrifying cycle. Lack of cognition leads to flaws in metacognition, and flaws in metacognition lead to the belief that there is no need to improve cognition.

This is the author’s explanation of why we experience the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

Why does our cognitive process go wrong?#

Imperfect Metacognitive Process#

• Where is the capital of Australia?
  (Sydney / Canberra)
• Where is the capital of Liaoning Province?
  (Shenyang / Dalian)
• Which country produces the most olive oil?
  (Italy / Spain)

Did everyone answer these questions correctly? If not, let’s see what the author has to say.

Here the author introduces the first reason for errors: imperfect metacognitive process.

How is it imperfect? The author elaborates on four aspects of our imperfect metacognitive scenarios.

• First, the reason we have metacognitive problems is that our knowledge is not wrong, but it may be incomplete.
  • For example, Teacher Fan mentioned his own experience; he has been to Italy and felt there were too many olive trees, so it must be Italy. However, he has never been to Spain and does not know that Spain actually has even more olive trees.
  • This reminds me of a metaphor from Teacher Qi; in the investment field, this problem is also quite common. If you only understand a little about investing, it might be better not to understand at all; this aligns with the author's point that incomplete knowledge can lead to completely opposite results.
• Second, our knowledge may be generally correct but have flaws.
  • For example, it is easy to remember the capital of Australia incorrectly, possibly because the Sydney Opera House is more frequently featured🤔.
• Third, much knowledge is pseudo-related; they have no relationship, but we subconsciously make arbitrary comparisons between them.
  • For example, there is a diagram in the book that asks how a small ball will move after the rope is cut.
    • Respondents who chose A believe: it will continue to spin because there is no rope between the Earth and the Sun.

• Fourth, confirmation bias; humans have a tendency to argue for any viewpoint.
  • This is also why metaphysics can exist for a long time, without any derogatory intent; I personally also enjoy studying non-natural metaphysics. Here, I want to mention that we need to view this psychology objectively to avoid being manipulated by those with ulterior motives👀.
  • People focus more on confirming information rather than negating hypotheses.
    • There is a saying; let’s see if it’s accurate: You are a person who appears very happy on the surface but is actually very melancholic inside. Sometimes you are very decisive, and sometimes you hesitate for a long time. Sometimes you are very enthusiastic, and sometimes you are very indifferent. Sometimes you are very casual, and sometimes you are very determined about something and won’t give it up.
      • I believe everyone would find this quite accurate, right? This is called the Barnum Effect.
      • In fact, everyone experiences such emotional fluctuations; it’s not surprising🤣.
    • Overconfidence in one’s choices.
      • Only seeing evidence that is beneficial to oneself.
    • First impressions become very important; reversing a first impression is very difficult.
      • He is a good person; everything he does is right.
      • He is a bad person; everything he does is malicious.

Experience and Feedback May Not Lead to Optimal Solutions#

I am a loyal fan of Liu Cixin, and when the author mentioned this point, I immediately thought of these two short stories from "The Three-Body Problem."

• The Turkey and the Farmer
  • In a farm, there is a group of turkeys, and the farmer comes to feed them every day at eleven o'clock. One of the turkeys, a scientist, observes this phenomenon and sees no exceptions for nearly a year, so it discovers its great law of the universe: “Every day at eleven o'clock, food descends.” It announces this law to the turkeys on Thanksgiving morning, but that day at eleven o'clock, no food arrives, and the farmer comes in and sends them all to the dinner table.
• The Ants and the Marksman
  • There is a group of ants living on a target plane. One day, a scientist among the ants observes and announces that he has discovered a great law: “Every ten centimeters in the universe, there must be a hole.” However, in reality, this is just a result of the marksman's random actions.
  • They interpret this random behavior of the marksman as an iron law of their universe.

Of course, these two examples are quite extreme, but they effectively illustrate the idea that perfect cognition does not necessarily lead to optimal solutions. So what reasons might lead to deviations in the feedback we receive?

• The probability of feedback
  • The premise and conclusion do not have an entailment relationship; that is, starting from the premise, one cannot necessarily derive the true conclusion but can only possibly do so.
  • A correct choice does not necessarily lead to a good outcome, and an incorrect choice does not necessarily lead to a bad outcome. This will be introduced along with the next characteristic.
• Incompleteness of feedback
  • Feedback can only reflect a part; for example, many mothers talk about educating their children, hitting them, and if they stop crying and become obedient, then it is useful. However, this can cause physical and psychological harm to the child.
• The obscurity of feedback
  • Feedback may be invisible; for instance, the negotiated price could potentially go lower, but you don’t know.
• The ambiguity of feedback
  • For example, if a blind date fails, you may never know the reason.
• The absence of feedback
  • Incompetent managers may find it difficult to speak up about employees’ poor performance, making it hard to provide correct feedback.
• Partiality of feedback
  • A speaker may not perform well, but the audience, out of politeness, does not expose it and instead says it was good.

In addition to the biases in external feedback from others, we also have many bad habits when receiving feedback:

• Focusing on positive feedback, making it hard to accept negative feedback.
  • I often tell my dad to smoke less, and he says, “Look, the leaders smoke every day, and they are fine.”
• People have a tendency for self-fulfilling prophecies.
  • Pygmalion Effect. When the homeroom teacher says a child is specially selected and has a bright future, in reality, they were not specially chosen, but the results indeed show that this group of children performs better.
    • Therefore, educational psychology hopes everyone looks forward to children doing well; similarly, in life, believing “I can do it” is much stronger than “I can’t, so forget it.”
• Hindsight bias
  • “I said xxx wouldn’t work; I was right.”
• Seeking feedback that aligns with self-image
  • Absorbing feedback that matches self-image; if it differs, one will reject it, believing it is incorrect.
    • Disregarding others' opinions.
• Possibly misremembering feedback content.
  • An experiment found that participants adjusted their memory content based on their self-esteem levels.
  • The self-esteem assessment feedback form filled out by the tester was slightly modified and sent back to them two weeks later, and after participants reviewed it, they were asked to recall it.
  • It was found that those with high self-esteem remembered the modified, more positive content, while those with low self-esteem remembered the modified, more negative content.

After reviewing these two parts, I realize that truly listening to a statement is incredibly difficult. It’s not that as we age and gain enough feedback and experience, we can more easily understand ourselves. There is knowledge in this.

The Illusion of Uniqueness#

This is easy to understand; we often feel that we are unique. Of course, everyone is born different, but if you inherently believe that you are stronger than the vast majority of people in certain aspects, you are likely falling into the trap of the illusion of uniqueness.

This illusion of uniqueness stems from three aspects:

• Controllability - Misconceptions brought by controllability
  • If people believe a certain trait is controllable, they are more likely to think they are superior to those around them regarding that trait.
    • For example, we tend to believe we are much more cooperative, polite, and disciplined than those around us (because these traits are controllable).
      • Here’s a case: in a survey, 80% of drivers believed they were in the better half of drivers, while in reality, 30% overestimated themselves, not realizing their driving skills were not that high.
    • However, when it comes to relatively uncontrollable traits, they do not feel the same level of superiority.
      • Regarding the earlier question about assessing one's athletic ability, most people do not overestimate themselves because, in most cases, it is not just about wanting to run faster to achieve world champion levels; most of these are clearly defined standards.
• Ambiguity - Self-centered subconscious thinking
  • In the absence of clear definitions, people tend to overestimate their performance.
  • They only assess their strengths and weaknesses without evaluating others' strengths and weaknesses.
    • This often occurs in job competitions; if one is elected, it is due to their strong abilities, but if not, it is due to industry conspiracies or political struggles. The essence may simply be that they do not have the obvious advantages of others.
      • In management, it is also necessary to have a certain degree of clarity in rules and regulations; laissez-faire governance may lead to internal conflicts.
      • This may be a significant source of conflict between people, and awareness of this performance is essential.
• Observability - Self-serving judgments brought by unobservability
  • The harder behavior is to observe, the more likely we are to make self-serving judgments. We can easily assess running speed at a glance, so we generally do not overestimate ourselves. However, due to the unobservability of internal personal traits, we often fall into the trap of collective ignorance (not knowing how others are doing).
    • Internal state: believing oneself to be stricter, indecisive, shy, picky, and anxious than others.
    • External state: not believing oneself to be more composed, tidy, competitive, verbose, or sarcastic than others.

The Illusion of Moral Superiority#

• Overestimating oneself while accurately evaluating others (the observer is confused)
  • This situation is most evident in moral aspects.
  • In a moral survey conducted on Williams, 80% of students stated they would refuse to plagiarize others' exam answers, while they believed only 56% of other students would also refuse to plagiarize.
• Reasons
  • Moral behavior is more desirable. We all wish to be moral individuals.
  • Moral behavior is controllable.
  • The ambiguity of moral behavior standards.
• Impact
  • On attribution: excessive condemnation of those whose character has been tested.
  • On individuals: claiming to be virtuous can lead to political and noble actions.
    • After making a commitment, they are more likely to fulfill expectations.
      • A simulated interview was conducted with residents of Bloomington, Indiana; 48% of respondents expressed willingness to contribute three hours of time for cancer association fundraising. In a real interview with a comparison group, only 4% agreed; however, three days later, when the experimental group was contacted, those who had previously predicted their behavior were more likely to agree to the actual request.

After discussing the above perspectives, we have some understanding. So how can we view the world more objectively?

How to View the World More Objectively#

• Learn to perceive situational contexts.
  • Climbing Mount Everest is not just a matter of gritting your teeth and going up. The actual situation is very difficult.
  • Immerse yourself in real scenarios, make adequate preparations, and fully understand the actual conditions.
  • Refer to others' data.
    • Refer to historical data; learning from history can inform future actions.
• Fight against emotions.
  • If you come home and find a crocodile in the bathtub, many people might feel a bit surprised, but if it actually happens, they might be too scared to speak.
  • We tend to underestimate the short-term emotional impact while overestimating the long-term emotional effects on us. The shock from a divorce may be immense in the first half month, but a year later, one has definitely accepted it.

We need to regularly conduct cognitive corrections: After reaching a conclusion, listen to differing opinions in the opposite direction. When you decide to do something, always ask those around you until you hear opposing views before making a decision.

What Changes for Me#

• The negative traits brought by evolution must have their rationality, such as ancestors who were too objective and thus lacked confidence may not have found partners, haha.
  • The benefits of confidence:
    • Optimism.
    • Easier to achieve success.
    • Easier to overcome adversity.
  • Confidence is certainly better than inferiority.
• A more objective understanding of oneself and others.
  • Do not expect everyone to understand each other, and also accept the fact that not everyone will understand you.
  • Here, I would like to introduce my own understanding of the Multidimensional Tunnel Theory.
    • Initially, I thought there were only two channels for people, one good and one bad. However, I later realized that these two channels do not exist; instead, there are countless parallel tunnels of hot reviews that occasionally intersect, transforming and influencing each other without affecting one another, and they do not understand each other. Each person is exploring the world in the cross-section of these words, but this does not affect their existence or their modes of cognition and understanding of the world.
• Rational objectivity is a luxury, but never give up the pursuit of it.
• Firmly believe in lifelong learning.
  • When people look at their own problems, they are not completely inaccurate. Higher cognitive levels lead to more accurate judgment.
  • Do not want to fall into a vicious cycle and become the person who says, “I don’t understand, but xxx” when they are old.
  • The more I know, the more I realize what I don’t know, but the less I know about what I don’t know.
• Give yourself positive psychological suggestions.
  • Organizing a book club, and since there are none around me, I am the most suitable candidate, haha.
    • I hope to gather many friends interested in reading, to read and share with each other, and to make progress together. Once there are enough people, we can also hold offline book clubs and movie-watching activities.
• Collect everyone's participation in advance for events. Just like that phone experiment, people who have made commitments are often more likely to keep their promises.

Conclusion#

Knowing yourself and not overdoing things is a significant matter; not overestimating oneself and not underestimating oneself is actually a very challenging task.

This book introduces the terrifying facts of cognitive biases we have in understanding ourselves, but it also brings us reflections in life and intellectual insights. This complex topic cannot be changed by just one book, but beginning to become aware of it is a good thing.

Understanding oneself is an eternal topic in human civilization, and I am also grateful that humanity possesses this ability for self-examination, allowing us to maintain the right direction in the pursuit of truth.

Finally, I hope everyone can continuously express their new insights on this eternal topic. Thank you all for watching, and I hope the content shared can bring everyone some gains, haha.